Fragile De-escalation

ISSUE 5 - Day 103. Fragile de-escalation. Ceasefire broke open Jun 7-8 - worst Israel-Iran exchange in months. US strikes resumed Jun 8-10; Iran hit US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait; Trump pledged further strikes while pushing a ceasefire framework against Israel-hawk resistance. Lebanon ceasefire (Jun 4) shaky - Hezbollah leadership rejected it, IDF soldier killed day one. Counter-signals: Iran declared ops vs Israel over Jun 7, Iranian airspace normal, Hormuz ship traffic increasing per US Energy Secretary Jun 9, Brent ~93 (from 138 peak), EIA assumes Hormuz reopen Q3. WoE holds 88 - kinetic flare offsets trade easing. CW 34->31 - off-ramp intact but fragility demonstrated. WG holds 47.